Numbers from Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 flight records · generated 1 October 2026
GateCast grades your connection from A to F on how likely you are to make it, using a year of real flight records. At Washington National, pairs of American flights scheduled 45–59 minutes apart were missed on 21% of the days they ran, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026; pairs 90–120 minutes apart, on 9%.
How often American connections here were missed
Every pair of American flights at Washington National (regional flights sold as American included), grouped by the scheduled time between them, and checked against what actually happened on each day both flights ran, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026.
"Missed" means the first flight was cancelled, or arrived too late to leave about 31 minutes to get off, reach the next gate and board before the doors close. That time is our estimate for American connections here: flight records don't say which passengers made their connection. Days when the second flight was cancelled aren't counted. Pairs scheduled less than 35 minutes apart are left out, because we can't tell which of those the airline would sell as a connection.
When American connections at Washington National go wrong
From the same flight records as the chart above, and with the same meaning of "missed".
How long a connection to look for
American connections of 90–120 minutes here were missed on 9% of days. No shorter connection time in the chart above was missed on fewer than 1 day in 10.
Time of day
American connections of 45–59 minutes at Washington National were missed on 14% of days when the first flight was due in before 10:00, and on 29% when it was due in at 18:00 or later.
| First flight due in | 35–44 min | 45–59 min | 60–89 min | 90–120 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| before 10:00 | 24% | 14% | 10% | 8% |
| 10:00–13:59 | 26% | 18% | 12% | 8% |
| 14:00–17:59 | 34% | 25% | 17% | 10% |
| 18:00 or later | 36% | 29% | 20% | 13% |
Share of days missed, by scheduled arrival time (Washington National local time) and scheduled time between the flights. "—": fewer than 500 days to go on.
Time of year
The month with the most missed American connections at Washington National was December 2025: 20% of days. The fewest was October 2025: 12%. The first flight was cancelled or diverted most often in July 2026, on 5.9% of days, against 0.4% in October 2025.
| Month | Days missed | First flight cancelled |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2025 | 14% | 1.8% |
| Sep 2025 | 13% | 0.7% |
| Oct 2025 | 12% | 0.4% |
| Nov 2025 | 19% | 3.2% |
| Dec 2025 | 20% | 3.0% |
| Jan 2026 | 17% | 4.1% |
| Feb 2026 | 19% | 3.8% |
| Mar 2026 | 19% | 4.9% |
| Apr 2026 | 13% | 0.8% |
| May 2026 | 13% | 1.6% |
| Jun 2026 | 15% | 4.1% |
| Jul 2026 | 19% | 5.9% |
"First flight cancelled" includes flights diverted to another airport. "—": fewer than 500 days to go on.
The last flight of the day
Of American's scheduled flights leaving Washington National at 18:00 or later, 47 of 110 are its last flight of the day to that city: miss the connection and the next American flight there leaves the next day. Before 10:00 it is 1 of 156. Connections onto a last flight of the day were missed on 21% of days; connections with a later American flight to the same city, on 15%.
How late American flights into Washington National ran
Over 51,781 scheduled American flights into Washington National, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, 29% arrived 15 or more minutes late and 12% an hour or more late. The typical flight arrived at the gate 4 minutes early. 4.5% were cancelled or diverted.
What decides a connection at Washington National
- All international arrivals at Washington National collect their checked bags, clear US customs, check them in again and go back through security before the next flight. The exception is flights that clear US preclearance before they leave. It runs at 16 airports (ten in Canada, including Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver, plus Dublin, Shannon, Nassau, Bermuda, Aruba and Abu Dhabi), though not on every flight from them; a flight that clears it arrives at Washington National as a domestic flight. Your airline can tell you whether yours does.US Customs and Border Protection, "Checking my baggage through to my final destination" (help.cbp.gov, article 1244); TSA, "One Stop Security" pilot release, 27 August 2025 (tsa.gov); US Customs and Border Protection, Preclearance locations and hours (cbp.gov/travel/preclearance, last modified 24 June 2026); Aer Lingus, "US immigration and pre-clearance" (mediacentre.aerlingus.com: no preclearance on its late Dublin departures to New York and Boston), checked 1 October 2026
What real connections here look like
Real American connections at Washington National from last year's flights. Each is the typical case of its kind, not the worst we found. Schedules change, so these exact flights may not run on your date.
43 minutes between flights looks tight — but on 86% of the 69 days both flights ran, the first one got in with enough time for a typical connection here. Graded B.
Graded over the 69 days both flights ran, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 · generated 1 October 2026 · local times
1h 30m looks like plenty of time. But the first flight arrived more than an hour late on 29% of the 92 days both flights ran, and the connection was missed on 17% of them. Graded C.
Graded over the 92 days both flights ran, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 · generated 1 October 2026 · local times
4h 33m between flights looks like plenty of room. But this is the last American flight of the day from DCA to SAT: miss it, and there's no later one that day, however long the wait was. The first flight got in too late on 2 of the 68 days both flights ran. Graded D; with another American flight an hour later it would be C.
Graded over the 68 days both flights ran, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 · generated 1 October 2026 · local times
These are two separate tickets, not one booking. If the first flight runs late and you miss the second, you're not owed a seat on it. Passengers typically paid $200* one way from DCA to BDL. Graded B. The connection itself is rarely missed: the grade comes from the arrival. On the days both flights ran, American 3248 reached BDL typically 3 min late, 11% of days more than an hour late.
Graded over the 65 days both flights ran, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 · generated 1 October 2026 · local times
Typical fare passengers paid, one way, per ticket, from the US DOT fare survey (Jul 2024–Jun 2025). Fare only; bags and seats extra. Today's price may be different.
Check your own flights
Connecting through Washington National on different flights? Enter both flight numbers and the date.
Questions
Is 45 minutes enough for American at Washington National?
Over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, pairs of American flights at Washington National scheduled 45–59 minutes apart were missed on 21% of the days they ran (2,196 flight pairs). Your own two flights can be much better or worse than that, so check them rather than going on the minutes alone.
Is an hour enough for American at Washington National?
Over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, pairs of American flights at Washington National scheduled 60–89 minutes apart were missed on 14% of the days they ran (3,633 flight pairs). Your own two flights can be much better or worse than that, so check them rather than going on the minutes alone.
- US Customs and Border Protection, "Checking my baggage through to my final destination" (help.cbp.gov, article 1244); TSA, "One Stop Security" pilot release, 27 August 2025 (tsa.gov); US Customs and Border Protection, Preclearance locations and hours (cbp.gov/travel/preclearance, last modified 24 June 2026); Aer Lingus, "US immigration and pre-clearance" (mediacentre.aerlingus.com: no preclearance on its late Dublin departures to New York and Boston), checked 1 October 2026
- Flight times, delays and cancellations: US Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, On-Time Performance, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026
- Fares: US DOT fare survey (DB1B), Jul 2024-Jun 2025
Grades are estimates, not guarantees. Always check your airline's minimum connection time.
Spotted a wrong number? Email hello@getgatecast.com and we'll check it and correct the page.